[SMM Nickel Lunchtime Review] Nickel prices pulled back sharply on July 28 as the US and EU reached the latest trade agreement

SMM Nickel Market Update on July 28:

Macro News:

(1)Trump announced a US-EU trade agreement: imposing 15% tariffs on EU imports, $600 billion in US-bound investments, zero tariffs from EU nations,with EU committing to purchase US military equipment and $750 billion worth of American energy products. Von der Leyen stated the 15% rate was the best achievable outcome by the European Commission.

(2) The China Securities Regulatory Commission convened its mid-2025 system-wide Party Building and Work Conference, emphasizing efforts to consolidate the market's stabilizing and improving trend. It called for enhanced market stabilization mechanisms, improved monitoring effectiveness and forward-looking risk response, alongside strengthened expectation guidance.

Spot Market:

Today's SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged 121,900-124,500 yuan/mt, averaging 123,200 yuan/mt, down 1,450 yuan/mt from the previous session. Jinchuan #1 refined nickel spot premiums quoted 2,000-2,300 yuan/mt, averaging 2,000 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt day-on-day. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel spot premiums/discounts fluctuated between -100 and 300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract pulled back sharply during the night session, closing 1.6% lower. The daytime session continued the weak trend, with prices at 121,600 yuan/mt by midday, down 1.51%.

"Anti-rat race" policy-driven short-term sentiment boost for industrial products gradually faded. Exchange-imposed trading limits on sharply rallied commodities triggered speculative fund exits, dragging nickel prices down overnight. With mixed macro signals, nickel prices decoupled from fundamentals into sentiment-driven territory. Market focus shifts to US-China tariff talks and US Fed rate decisions. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend near-term, projected at 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.